Strategic risks

Competition and client concentration

Competitive pressure in the e-commerce market remains intense, with established players expanding market share and new entrants further intensifying dynamics. Rising client concentration increases exposure to a limited number of dominant platforms, amplifying pricing pressure and dependency risks. These developments continue to challenge market share, volumes and profitability across key segments.

• Deepen customer centricity by ensuring network flexibility during peak periods and maintaining sustainable labour agreements to safeguard delivery quality and service levels.
• Accelerate digital transformation and embrace AI to boost competitiveness through data-driven insights and differentiated service propositions to enhance NPS.
• Strengthen yield management and operational efficiency by leveraging economies of scale, performance steering, and integrated capacity and revenue management.

Geopolitical tensions and economic consequences

Geopolitical tensions arising from trade, regional conflicts, and regulatory changes create macroeconomic uncertainty that continues to influence PostNL’s operating environment.

With an increasing international footprint across Europe and Asia, and greater dependence on China–Europe trade lanes, PostNL faces risks from changing trade policies, currency fluctuations, and economic pressures that may affect consumer spending, parcel volumes and margin development.

• De-risk via diversification - spread across different countries in Asia and Europe to minimise concentration risk (i.e., reduce dependability on China-EU flows).
• Assess regulatory and geopolitical exposures across PostNL’s operations and implement measures – such as diversifying cloud service providers – to mitigate potential business impacts.

Implementation of strategic change projects

Strategic change projects are critical to PostNL’s transformation but remain exposed to execution and resource risks. The main challenge lies in prioritising limited resources across multiple initiatives. Constrained financial flexibility, scarcity of IT capacity and transformation capabilities and forecast uncertainties may delay implementation, impacting operational efficiency, profitability, and competitiveness in a rapidly evolving logistics landscape.

• Maintain stable cash flow and invest in digitalisation.
• Strengthen management practices and accelerate strategic priorities by becoming a performance-driven organisation with a transformational mindset.

Financial sustainability of Mail in the Netherlands

Ongoing uncertainty regarding the revision of the Postal Act and the rejection of temporary government subsidies continue to threaten the long-term financial sustainability of Mail in the Netherlands. Structural volume decline, increasing costs and a tight labour market continue to put additional pressure on profitability. Without the necessary regulatory adjustments, operational changes to the postal network cannot be implemented. Even in the transition to a D+2 (i.e. delivery within two days) model, the universal service obligation and the financial position of PostNL’s Mail segment remain loss-making. Therefore, regulatory adjustments need to be made as soon as possible to initiate the required transition, including a financing model that supports this transition.

• We continue to urge policymakers to accelerate reform of the Postal Act to secure a sustainable universal service obligation framework. The proposal to amend the Postal Decree and proposed change to D+2 as of July 2026 are positive developments. However, there is still no long-term sustainability of the mail segment. PostNL will continue to advocate for a regulatory framework that reflects structural market developments, and pursue appropriate legal remedies regarding the rejection of the subsidy request. Given the current long-term uncertainty, PostNL is appealing the rejection of the withdrawal of the USO designation.
• Structural cost and network optimisation programmes are being expanded, but remain insufficient to offset continuously declining mail volumes and structurally rising costs. Therefore, further major adjustments are needed.
• Targeted workforce initiatives focus on improving absenteeism management, strengthening employee engagement, and ensuring operational continuity amid a tight labour market.

Network capacity and flexibility

Although PostNL’s network capacity has become more robust, limited flexibility in daily operations could still lead to inefficiencies and higher costs related to volume fluctuations. A possible delay in the implementation of the ‘Best Day’ delivery model may result in missed opportunities to optimise parcel flows, potentially causing temporary imbalances, increased operational pressure, and a decline in overall network performance.

• Further optimise volume planning and resource allocation through dynamic forecasting and flexible processing strategies to accommodate demand fluctuations.
• Implement the ‘Next Day to Best Day’ transition, enabling balanced parcel flows and enhanced operational efficiency across the network.
• Strengthen collaboration between commercial, operational, and IT functions to maintain high service quality while maximising network utilisation and sustainability.

Climate change

PostNL’s progress toward its 2030 and 2040 decarbonisation targets depends on reducing emissions from outsourced transport, adopting low-carbon technologies, and maintaining an agile logistics model. Limited availability of zero-emission vehicles, charging infrastructure, or renewable energy, combined with stricter climate regulations and cost pressures, could delay progress, increase compliance costs, or harm PostNL’s reputation and competitiveness if sustainability expectations are not met.

• Execute decarbonisation roadmap 2030 and 2040 through fleet electrification, zero-emission delivery, and partnerships with transport providers to accelerate electric vehicle adoption and charging infrastructure development.
• Improve network efficiency using innovative planning and equal-flow logistics to reduce kilometres travelled, optimise transport utilisation, and lower the carbon intensity of operations.
• Enhance energy efficiency of buildings and facilities by using 100% renewable electricity and continuously reducing operational emissions through sustainable design and technology upgrades.

Data excellence and integrity

PostNL aims to digitally transform by embracing AI-first to accelerate innovation, boost competitiveness and reduce costs (increase efficiency). Data quality, integrity, and governance are critical to driving this digital transformation.

Challenges in data completeness, quality, integrity, timeliness and availability may hinder the ability to drive decision-making through data and to enhance AI-based use cases that create real impact. At the same time, weaknesses in data governance or regulatory compliance may expose PostNL to financial, operational and reputational risks.

• Strengthen data management through continuous oversight and strategic guidance from the Data Governance Board to enhance data quality, integrity, and organisational accountability by making data foundation a key strategic priority.
• Implement a digital compliance programme to ensure ongoing adherence to current and emerging regulatory requirements across all PostNL data processes and systems.
• Embedding AI in high-impact business domains to build products and services with AI at their core.

Operational risks

Employee attraction, development and retention

Labour market constraints, absenteeism and persistent challenges in attracting and retaining skilled employees continue to pressure productivity and service quality. Sustaining employee wellbeing, engagement and long-term employability is essential to maintain operational stability and PostNL’s reputation as an attractive and responsible employer.

• Strengthen employee health and wellbeing through the new partnership with Zorg van de Zaak, focusing on sustainable employability and reducing absenteeism across all business units.
• Implement the new Managing Employability programme to reduce absenteeism and improve reintegration and support for employees returning to work after illness.
• Further embed the new Health & Safety organisation and strengthen leadership accountability to structurally reduce absenteeism and promote a safe, supportive work environment.

Operational excellence

Planned efficiency improvements and cost synergies may not be fully realised if progress on Operational Excellence initiatives were to fall behind expectations. This could slow the execution of cost-reduction programmes and result in continued pressure on the cost base, with limited flexibility to further reduce operational expenses in the short term. Margin pressure, tightening regulatory requirements and rising labour expenses further increase this risk and may adversely affect our ability to maintain operational competitiveness in a structurally high-cost environment.

• Strengthen performance management to enhance visibility, accountability and consistency in executing Operational Excellence initiatives across all organisational layers.
• Drive steering through Strategic Performance Plans to reinforce execution discipline and enable sustainable efficiency improvements.
• Improve operational effectiveness through workforce optimisation, simplification of end-to-end processes and removal of structural inefficiencies.

Availability of energy resources

The availability and affordability of energy resources are critical to PostNL’s operations and sustainability ambitions. Rising energy prices, grid congestion, and limited electricity capacity in the Netherlands increase the risk of disruption to business processes and delay the transition to an electric fleet. Exceeding grid capacity may result in penalties and higher costs, while energy scarcity could impact cost efficiency, service continuity, and progress toward PostNL’s sustainability and emission-reduction targets.

• Secure energy needs through futures contracts and local supply agreements.
• Increase self-generation through renewable energy and self-sufficient buildings, explore alternative or temporary energy solutions, and extend sustainable energy options to delivery partners over time.
• Reduce overall energy use by improving asset efficiency and develop on-site energy (storage) solutions to mitigate the impact of grid congestion and capacity limits.

Information technology and cybersecurity

PostNL’s increasing digitalisation and reliance on interconnected systems heighten exposure to cyber threats and IT disruptions. Although overall resilience has improved, risks related to legacy systems, data breaches, and third-party dependencies remain.

• Strengthen cybersecurity governance through continuous improvement, clear accountability, and central oversight supported by decentralised cybersecurity coordinators.
• Enhance resilience of critical IT applications via regular penetration testing, patch management, and incident response reviews.
• Progressively phase out legacy systems and accelerate transition to modern, secure platforms with improved monitoring and access controls.

Total cost of labour

Higher labour costs and related expenses could significantly impact our financial performance, particularly if we are unable to efficiently adjust pricing within our operating model. Operational disruptions from trade union actions or negative media attention may further intensify these challenges. In a high-inflation environment, rising labour indexations and salary expectations continue to pressure our cost structure and resilience. Proposed legislation mandating equal benefits for temporary workers by 2026 could further increase total labour costs.

• Establishing collective labour agreements with robust wage agreements in the future.
• Maintaining good relations with trade unions and social partners based on mutual recognition of shared interests.
• Balance the need for fair pay to remain a good employer with generating sufficient cash flow to continue investing in our future. PostNL has adjusted its pricing strategy to address higher minimum wage costs, supporting efforts to keep rising labour costs, including temporary labour, within manageable limits.

Liability for loss or damage

Rising parcel volumes and higher average shipment values continue to expose PostNL to loss and damage claims. Exposure to such claims adversely impact our financial performance.

• Strengthen contractual frameworks with customers by refining liability terms, enforcing clear claim limits, and ensuring consistent communication on delivery conditions.
• Enhance physical and digital security through additional metal detection gates, improved parcel tracking, and new tools to monitor losses among delivery and retail partners.
• Continue targeted loss-prevention initiatives such as dedicated handling for high-value shipments and receiver verification, ensuring sustained reduction in damage-related payouts.

Compliance risks

Supply chain accountability

PostNL depends on third-party suppliers and partners to deliver key products and services, which heightens accountability across the supply chain. Non-compliance by suppliers or their subcontractors with labour laws, environmental standards, or ethical guidelines may expose PostNL to legal, operational, and reputational risks. Ensuring compliance across multiple layers of the supply chain—particularly within delivery, IT, and staffing partners—adds complexity. Disruptions, underperformance, or regulatory breaches could impact service quality, customer trust, and the company’s ability to meet growing societal expectations.

• We are modifying contracts with staffing agencies to include a ‘right to audit’ clause, for regular monitoring and assurance of compliance with labour conditions and other compliance requirements.
• New due diligence process for delivery partners to thoroughly assess their operational and compliance capabilities.
• Management of cloud suppliers through robust assessments based on a strict control framework.
• Closely monitoring emerging societal expectations and increasing compliance demands to proactively anticipate and respond to them.

Legal and regulatory developments

Regulatory requirements and oversight remain extensive and complex across the markets in which we operate, covering postal, transport, competition, labour, data protection and environmental standards. Uncertain regulatory reform, including the revision of the Postal Act and evolving USO obligations, present ongoing legal and compliance risks. Maintaining compliance is essential to safeguard licence to operate. Misinterpretation of new or amended laws or ineffective internal controls could result in sanctions or reputational damage affecting PostNL’s financial performance.

• Strengthen the compliance framework across all relevant domains (such as postal, transport, environmental and labour) through periodic process reviews and updates of internal controls.
• Operate a robust integrity programme that embeds our Code of Conduct and promotes awareness and adherence across the organisation, supported by mandatory integrity e-learning modules.
• Ensure timely adaptation of our operations to changes in legal and regulatory requirements.