External developments

The markets in which we operate remain volatile and dynamic. In 2025, geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic uncertainty, combined with a still-tight labour market, continued to impact our operating costs and influence customer behaviour.

The increasingly competitive landscape further added pressure, as we continued to face growing expectations from both consumers and business partners in terms of delivery speed, flexibility, and sustainability. Consumers are also seeking more control, better predictability, and stronger digital connections, from ordering to delivery, requiring us to adapt our services accordingly. At the same time, ongoing digitalisation, automation, and advances in artificial intelligence (AI) are providing opportunities to further improve service quality and efficiency. In this section, we explain these developments in the context of PostNL.

Geopolitical and economic developments

Trade and policy uncertainty remain prominent, and the Netherlands’ growth outlook faces headwinds from elevated tariffs and geopolitical fragmentation. According to De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), economic expansion will hover around 1 percent through 2027, below prior estimates, unless trade frictions ease. In 2025, inflation eased to 3.3 percent.

Parallel to this, cross-border trade and postal markets are facing transformative regulatory change. In May 2025, the European Commission advanced preparations for a wider reform of EU customs rules for non-EU e-commerce. This reform, expected to take full effect by 2028, includes the abolition of the €150 duty-free threshold, with the EU considering an accelerated removal of the de minimis as early as 2026. In addition, the Dutch government announced its intention to introduce a national €2 handling fee for low-value imports, ahead of wider EU reforms, but eventually postponed taking a decision on this until further notice. These changes would reshape import processes and require adjustments to our international operations, drawing on our expertise in navigating shifting value chains.

In the United States, ending the de minimis exemption (duty-free entry for post and parcels’ goods valued under $800) from 29 August triggered operational disruption. Almost all operators, including PostNL, temporarily halted certain U.S.-bound parcel shipments amid uncertainty over customs processes and data requirements.

“Ongoing digitalisation, automation, and advances in artificial intelligence are providing opportunities to further improve service quality and efficiency”

Policy developments

Legal proceedings concerning the universal service obligation (USO) also continued, underlining the lack of a sustainable regulatory solution. Modernising the postal law remains urgent and the current framework limits the sector’s ability to adapt to evolving consumer behaviour, digital substitution and declining mail volumes. Separately, global postal and logistics networks are facing increased complexity due to new trade restrictions and fragmented regulatory frameworks. These developments underscore the importance of clear, forward-looking policy frameworks that support sector innovation and resilience in a rapidly changing environment.

Labour market

The Dutch labour market remained tight in 2025. Unemployment increased slightly over the course of the year, particularly in the second half, yet remained low in comparison with other European Union countries. For PostNL, competition for part-time workers continued to be challenging in some regions, particularly for Mail in the Netherlands. Recruitment and retention initiatives, scheduling optimisation, and continued engagement with social partners remained key areas of attention. More on our approach to tackling this can be found in the Delivery in 2025 chapter. Looking ahead, labour-market tightness is expected to persist, reinforcing the need for continued focus on workforce stability and operational efficiency.

In addition to the challenges of a tight labour market, PostNL experienced higher labour costs due to increases in the statutory minimum wage, which rose by 2.78% on 1 January and 2.42% on 1 July 2025 for employees aged 21 and over, pushing up wage bills across the organisation. Because the lower tiers of our collective labour agreement (CLA) are linked to the statutory minimum wage, this resulted in pay increases across the organisation. This added cost pressure for the labour-intensive parts of our operations. Continued upward wage dynamics are expected in 2026, and we will remain focused on productivity measures and network optimisation to mitigate these effects as much as possible.

Technological advancement and digitalisation

The pace of adoption of digital technologies is accelerating, supported by advances in robotics, automation and data-driven tools, and we saw digitalisation, robotics and AI further enhancing efficiency and service in 2025. AI is developing fast, creating new opportunities but also increasing risks around responsible use. The result is that cybersecurity and regulatory readiness remain key, particularly as the digital infrastructure underpinning logistics and postal operations becomes more complex and interconnected.

Innovation plays an essential role in strengthening our distinctive customer experience, both within and beyond the delivery moment. We continue to invest in digital solutions and emerging technologies that enhance reliability, convenience, and transparency across our networks. By modernising our platforms, applying data-driven insights and exploring new business models, we are creating smarter, more flexible services that anticipate customer needs where it matters most. These innovations support our long-term ambition to operate more efficiently, sustainably and in closer partnership with our customers and stakeholders.

For example, we are continuing to strengthen our digital foundations by progressing investments in secure data platforms, cloud-based applications, and automation of key operational workflows. These initiatives support greater network resilience and allow for more accurate volume forecasting, route optimisation, and real-time visibility across our logistics processes. At the same time, we continued to focus on cybersecurity frameworks to ensure we are prepared against emerging digital threats.

And in line with our new strategy, we are moving decisively towards an AI-first approach. This shift will accelerate innovation, boost competitiveness, empower talent and help reduce costs across the organisation. Enabled by our dedicated AI Centre of Excellence, the transformation is structured along four streams: building the right AI architecture and governance to scale responsibly; strengthening our ecosystem through deep collaboration with leading technology partners; executing value through applications such as conversational AI in customer care and a growing pipeline of proofs of concept; and driving company-wide adoption.

Together, these measures provide a more robust basis for innovation while supporting continuity of service for customers and communities.

While these developments create significant opportunities for enhanced service and operational performance, they also raise important questions around ethical use, transparency, and privacy. As AI becomes more deeply embedded in operational and customer-facing processes, expectations around responsible data use are rising in parallel. Ensuring alignment with general data protection regulation (GDPR), embedding privacy-by-design principles, and maintaining robust oversight are key to safeguarding trust.

Looking ahead, we recognise the need to actively monitor the evolving ethical landscape surrounding AI, as well as stakeholder expectations and regulatory developments. Balancing innovation with accountability will remain essential to ensure that digitalisation supports both long-term efficiency and responsible business conduct.

“Balancing innovation with accountability will remain essential to ensure that digitalisation supports both long-term efficiency and responsible business conduct”

Competitive landscape

The competitive landscape in 2025 was shaped by shifting consumer preferences and the responses of e-commerce platforms, merchants, and logistics players. Growing demand for reliability, convenience and delivery flexibility accelerated the adoption of multi-vendorship models, with e-tailers increasingly offering both home and OOH solutions at checkout. This supported the rapid expansion of our APL and pick-up networks across the market, with OOH delivery emerging as a key competitive differentiator.

At the same time, broader market dynamics continued to evolve. E-commerce consolidation intensified, with marketplaces and platforms dominating and Asian players in particular gaining share. The increasing weight of e-commerce platforms and growing client concentration placed further pressure on margins and service dynamics. Their influence reinforced market consolidation, raising barriers to entry for smaller players but also creating opportunities for targeted growth in cross-border flows.

Additionally, consumer behaviour also played an increasingly important role in shaping this ecosystem. Ordering patterns are becoming more concentrated, with clear ‘peaks’ emerging around weekends, when salaries are paid and promotional moments. These shifts create uneven flows across the week, putting additional pressure on logistics networks and requiring smarter planning, flexible capacity, and closer collaboration with customers to balance volume.

Internationally, logistics providers expanded networks to capture rising demand for seamless cross-border e-commerce. Competitive dynamics were further shaped by customs reforms, regulatory changes and the normalisation of freight rates following 2024’s disruptions. However, geopolitical risks and tariff measures continued to influence routing, cost structures, and competitive positioning.

Looking ahead, competition will increasingly centre on who can best anticipate consumer expectations for choice, transparency and sustainability. Operators that can adapt to peak-driven buying behaviour, smooth demand and offer flexible OOH and home-delivery options will be well positioned to strengthen market share. Changing consumer behaviour continues to shape both e-commerce and mail markets, as spending patterns stabilise following years of volatility and preferences shift towards convenience, reliability, and responsible consumption.