Main risk eventsMain risks and opportunitiesEmerging risks

Main risks and opportunities

Strategic risks

PostNL Strategic risks

TopicRisk levelTrendRisk summary
Competition
Pressure on market share, volumes and pricing impacting revenues and profitability.
Geopolitical tensions and CBS growth
The growth of international customers elevates PostNL's geographic risk exposure, particular to foreign regulations, market volatility and the increasing dependence on the China-Europe trade lane, potentially impacting financial performance and client concentration risks. Additionally, rising protectionism and trade barriers could further challenge our international operations and increase existing risks. Beyond the direct impact on CBS, increasingly global political instability and geopolitical developments may also affect PostNL’s broader operations, including supply chain continuity.
Implementation of strategic change projects
Progress on PostNL’s strategic pillars is crucial for growth and profitability. Delays in digitalisation or strategic changes risk impacting competitiveness, operational efficiency, and cost savings, while change projects may temporarily affect internal controls.
Sustainable financial situation Mail in the Netherlands
Acceleration of the decline in physical mail volumes, rising labour costs, and stringent USO requirements, including next-day delivery, are placing increasing pressure on Mail in the Netherlands profitability and financial sustainability. More information on this, including PostNL’s request for temporary government financial support under the Dutch General Administrative Law Act to cover net USO costs for 2025 and 2026, can be found in the Future o f Mail box in the Our operating context chapter.
Network capacity and flexibility
Market volatility may challenge the flexibility of our Parcels network to scale. Inability to scale up could disrupt logistics, reduce customer satisfaction, and increase customer churn, which may have an impact on our competitive position.
Climate change
Failure to achieve our 2030 and 2040 decarbonisation targets could have an adverse impact our licence to operate, reputation and financial performance.
Data excellence and integrity
Emphasising the importance of data quality and governance for customer value and logistics optimisation. Risks in data completeness may disrupt operations and hinder digital transformation, affecting customer satisfaction and excellence.

Download spreadsheet

Risk description

Response

Competition
Competition continues to put pressure on our market share, volumes, and prices in e-commerce-related activities, which could have an adverse effect on revenues and profitability. Our delivery quality levels, which are critical drivers of our success, are strongly affected by the tight labour market. If our competitors overtake our lead in delivery quality and customer satisfaction decreases, it could have significant implications for our market share. Additionally, there is a risk of losing customer volume due to dual vendorship, whether this arises from an inability to guarantee the requested capacity or not. In the competitive landscape, three main areas relate to developments by established logistics players:
  • New entrants with significant funding are entering the traditional market with innovative, digital and data-driven business models, to attract both smaller and larger customers
  • Large platform businesses are becoming more dominant leading to concentration of volumes and increased purchasing power
  • Value chain integration is developing rapidly, enabling parties to offer distinctive customer experiences.
Mitigation
  • Margin management, efficiency improvements, leveraging from economies of scale
  • Accelerating our digital transformation, redesign of our customer journeys with a standardised methodology, and further improving sustainability across the company to improve NPS
  • Multiple commercial initiatives, including service-level differentiation, (new) products and pricing, and quality improvements in relation to network coverage and operational excellence
  • Be even more customer centric in improving our business by ensuring flexibility during the peak season, thereby safeguarding customer and consumer service levels
  • Establishing collective labour agreements with robust wage structures, including monitoring of delivery partners' rate setting
Opportunity description
The logistics sector’s rapid transformation offers a unique opportunity to strengthen our competitive position through targeted investments in quality, innovation, and customer-focused solutions. By prioritising operational reliability and expanding network coverage, we can better align with the evolving needs of our customers and position ourselves as a trusted partner in a dynamic market. Embracing data-driven technologies and reimagining customer journeys allows us to unlock efficiencies, deliver enhanced satisfaction, and stay ahead of market trends. Additionally, we enhance our brand equity through corporate social responsibility initiatives, such as the Special Moments Fund, and strategic sponsorships, fostering deeper connections with communities and customers.
Geopolitical tensions and CBS growth
The robust growth of international customers through CBS increases PostNL's geographic risk profile, particularly due to heightened exposure to international regulations and market volatility. As CBS becomes a larger part of our revenues, factors such as political instability abroad, customs complexities, sanctions legislation, and currency fluctuations have a greater impact. One concern is the growing dependence on the China-Europe trade lane, increasingly impacting our financial performance (both in terms of balance sheet and P&L). The market growth in international parcel deliveries further exposes us to Chinese regulatory requirements and heightens our dependence on a select group of key accounts, which may lead to an increased risk of client concentration. Additionally, there is an increasing concern regarding potential rises in protectionism and the implementation of trade barriers in the current geopolitical climate. These developments could pose challenges to our international operations and exacerbate existing risk factors.Beyond the direct impact on CBS, increasingly global political instability and geopolitical developments may also affect PostNL’s broader operations, including supply chain continuity, which is addressed by continuously reviewing our business resilience and cybersecurity programmes, and strategic decision-making across the organisation.
Mitigation
  • Our de-risking strategy involves diversification, spread across different countries in Asia to minimise concentration risk, regularly assess potential threats, and implement measures to mitigate them.
  • Stay informed about market trends, geopolitical developments, and emerging risks to make informed decisions.
  • We mitigate risk by expanding our footprint in both Europe and Asia to make us less dependable on China-EU flows.
More information can be found in the Customer value chapter.
Opportunity description
We see opportunities to expand our international footprint and strengthen our market position in response to the geopolitical landscape and the growth of CBS. By diversifying into new markets in Europe and Asia and targeting key customers in China, we aim to reduce dependency on the China-EU trade lane and balance our geographic risk profile. Additionally, emerging opportunities in regions such as Eastern Europe, Canada, and the USA provide potential for sustainable revenue growth.Our expertise in navigating complex international supply chains enables us to offer tailored e-commerce solutions to customers who face increasing logistical challenges. This positions us as a reliable partner in global e-commerce while reinforcing our ability to capitalise on the growing demand for end-to-end logistics services.
Sustainable financial situation at Mail in the Netherlands
The ongoing shift towards increased digital communication continues to drive a decline in the physical mail market. Next-day delivery postal volumes are decreasing at an even faster rate than lower-cost postal volumes with longer transit times. Substitution, combined with rising structural costs—particularly increasing labour costs and inflation—is adversely impacting our revenue and profitability.As the universal service provider (USP) under the USO, it is becoming increasingly unfeasible to meet the stringent USO requirements while maintaining the necessary fixed costs to sustain postal services in the Netherlands. Adapting our postal network to align with market developments and evolving consumer and client expectations is essential. To address these challenges, we have initiated discussions with the Ministry of Economic Affairs regarding the future of the USO. We are actively engaging with policymakers and the Minister to highlight the urgent need for a revision of the USO terms. Our discussions have centred on the necessity of adjustments and financial support to ensure the continued viability of the statutory obligations. However, the political decision-making process has been delayed, pending further analysis. This postponement requires us to explore additional measures beyond those already implemented for business mail to mitigate the risks associated with the declining market and the USO framework.
Mitigation
  • To keep mail for everyone, reliably delivered and prepared for the future, PostNL has, since January 2025, transitioned to a two-day delivery time-frame for business mail that was previously delivered by the next day. From February 2025, PostNL will introduce staggered collection times for mailboxes throughout the day. This approach enhances efficiency, reduces the number of kilometres driven, improves sustainability, and lowers costs—helping to maintain affordable postal services in the Netherlands.
  • Marketing the value of physical mail, for example by helping e-commerce players discover the power of physical direct mail
  • Adapting our operational business model to become more flexible in our response to further volume decline and (labour) cost increases
  • Continue to reassess the service levels we offer under the current USO to better align with market demands and operational viability.
More information can be found in the Our operating context, Customer value and Financial value chapters.
Implementation of strategic change projects
To drive progress across our three strategic pillars—manage Parcels for sustainable growth, manage Mail in the Netherlands for value, and accelerate digitalisation—we are implementing multiple strategic changes simultaneously. Any shortfall in delivering on these pillars could adversely impact our growth, profitability, operational efficiency, cash conversion, and required cost savings.Successfully implementing these strategic changes requires a strong focus on effective stakeholder engagement and project management, ensuring resources are allocated efficiently and execution remains on track. Organisational agility is essential to anticipate short-term developments and evolving business needs. Any delays in planned improvements could weaken our competitive position, as PostNL must keep pace with rapid technological advancements in the logistics sector. Additionally, the implementation of strategic change projects inherently increases the risk of temporary inefficiencies in internal controls.
Mitigation
  • Aiming for a stable and sufficient cash flow to allow for acceleration of our digitalisation through significant investments, with monthly budget insights provided to the Executive Committee for ongoing monitoring.
  • A pilot programme has been launched to explore a new working method designed to enhance management practices and accelerate strategic change priorities—both of which are critical to achieving our objectives. Each priority is assigned to a member of the Executive Committee, ensuring a clear division of tasks and responsibilities. This approach minimises discrepancies in decision-making, reduces organisational layers, eliminates role duplication, and creates a more actionable and manageable structure.
Opportunity description
The implementation of strategic change projects presents an opportunity to redefine our operations for a more agile and innovative future. By focusing on streamlining governance and building organisational agility, we can optimise resource allocation and accelerate the adoption of transformative digital technologies. This transformation positions us to adapt to technological advancements, shifting customer expectations, and be more adaptable to changing markets with speed and precision. It enables us to reduce time to market for critical innovations, optimise value creation, and secure a leading role in the logistics sector.By successfully implementing these initiatives, we aim to become a leading logistics provider with advanced digital capabilities, prepared to adapt to industry challenges and deliver consistent growth for the long term.
Network capacity and flexibility
Increased market volatility may put pressure on the required flexibility of the capacity of our Parcels network to scale up or down. Investments in our logistical infrastructure are typically fixed over the short term. Therefore, the inability to scale up could lead to operational risks, including disruptions in logistics processes and a decline in customer satisfaction, potentially resulting in customer churn as clients may turn to competitors. Conversely, the inability to scale down as required may also increase the risk of operational inefficiencies and higher costs, which may impact our competitive position.
Mitigation
  • PostNL constantly adjusts its network capacity to the projected and (where possible) actual volume developments within the limits of a tight labour market. The necessary flexibility for peak season will be maintained to safeguard customer and consumer service levels.
  • Collaborating with customers and partners in the e-commerce value chain to manage volume expectations and to manage the peak moments in our operational volumes.
  • Effective management and coordination of our network access to prevent operational congestion. This approach enhances our capability to preserve network integrity and consistently deliver a relatively high-quality service.
  • We are developing additional capabilities to more rapidly and precisely adjust our network capacity to changes in demand. Reducing the critical path in lead time for scaling up and down is essential to follow volume developments.
Opportunity description
The increasing volatility in parcel volumes presents PostNL with an opportunity to innovate and enhance its operational flexibility while maintaining high service standards. By fostering stronger collaboration with e-commerce partners and integrating more deeply into customer supply chains, we can develop more predictable and balanced parcel flows, reducing inefficiencies, costs and strengthening our ability to adapt to fluctuations in demand.We are also exploring scalable solutions, such as the introduction of mini-hubs and smarter capacity management tools, to better manage volume spikes without straining our core network. These efforts are complemented by dynamic pricing models that link flexibility with sustainability, ensuring long-term viability for both PostNL and our customers.Clear expectation management remains central to our strategy. By aligning delivery timelines and flow management agreements with our partners, we can maintain reliable operations while balancing customer needs with resource efficiency. Through these initiatives, we are not only addressing the challenges of a volatile market but also strengthening our competitive edge. PostNL is building a more resilient and cost-effective network, ensuring we continue to deliver high-quality service in the dynamic e-commerce landscape.
Climate change
We have set ambitious targets towards 2030 and 2040 to significantly decarbonise our business and have identified three key risk factors that could impair our ability to meet these targets.
  • Our dependency on reducing the emissions of outsourced transport, which accounts for a significant percentage of our transport activities.
  • Our dependency on technological innovations, such as the availability of zero-emission or low-carbon vehicles, and the availability of the required (electric) charging infrastructure and energy.
  • The agility of our logistics business model, particularly at Parcels. Not being able to adapt our business and operational model in a commercially viable way in time to meet the increasing climate-related expectations of customers and society in general will negatively impair our reputation and financial performance. This could lead to a loss of revenue based on customer decisions and increased costs due to expensive investments or carbon taxes. Moreover, aligning our visible sustainability efforts with societal expectations will be essential to avoid disconnect, while maintaining our reputation and financial performance.
Mitigation
  • We are committed to executing and refining our concrete action plan across the short, medium, and long term. This includes delivering emission-free from the final sorting centre to the consumer or an alternative pick-up location by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2040, with a primary focus on transitioning to an electric fleet.To support this transition, we are working closely with our delivery partners to drive awareness, align strategies on shared objectives, provide financial incentives for the adoption of electric vehicles, and ensure the availability of sufficient charging infrastructure—key enablers in achieving our sustainability goals.
  • Realise network efficiencies through innovative solutions such as creating an equal flow in both transport and last-mile delivery to cut the number of kilometres we travel, and become less carbon intensive in our operations
  • Continue to enhance the climate impact and energy efficiency of our buildings and facilities to reduce our emission by continuing our commitment to procure 100% renewable energy.
More information on our climate change performance can be found in the Environmental value chapter.
Opportunity description
PostNL is committed to tackling climate change by cutting GHG emissions and creating a sustainable logistics network. We are driving low-carbon operations by collaborating with logistics providers to adopt more sustainable solutions. We are also advocating for systemic change by working with policymakers to support green technologies, including zero-emission vehicles, charging infrastructure, and renewable energy. Supporting the EU’s goal of 50% circularity by 2030, we offer logistics solutions for repair, reuse, and recycling, reducing resource use and packaging waste. These efforts align with our 2030 decarbonisation targets and strengthen our role as a sustainable, innovative leader.
Data excellence and integrity
In an increasingly data-driven and digitised world, PostNL recognises the strategic importance of robust data quality, integrity, and governance to deliver customer value, drive logistics optimisation, and support informed decision-making. There is a potential risk that challenges in ensuring data completeness, availability, and the effective implementation of governance frameworks may hinder our ability to achieve our goals. Such challenges may impact core areas such as logistics and customer experience, possibly leading to inefficiencies, slow down our digital transformation initiatives, and reduce the effectiveness of our decision-making processes, which are essential to meeting the high standards we set for customer satisfaction and operational excellence.Furthermore, maintaining robust data governance, alongside ensuring data completeness and availability, is essential for compliance with regulatory requirements (e.g., GDPR). Incidents in this area may increase exposure to reputational damage, financial penalties, and additional costs. Over the long term, failure to strengthen our capabilities in data quality, governance, and integrity could limit our adaptability in a dynamic market, jeopardising PostNL’s competitiveness and long-term strategic objectives.
Mitigation
  • Enhancements in our data management processes are guided by ongoing oversight and direction from our Data Governance Board
  • A digital compliance program is initiated to ensure compliance on current and upcoming regulatory requirements across PostNL
  • The Data Foundation strategic programme is included as one of our nine strategic priorities.
Opportunity description
The growing significance of data governance, quality, and integrity presents an opportunity for PostNL to strengthen its operational foundation and drive digital transformation. By adopting advanced data management practices and enhancing data integrity, we can unlock actionable insights, improve predictive capabilities, and enhance decision-making across the organisation. By embedding data-driven innovation into our strategic roadmap, we position ourselves to respond proactively to market changes and create sustainable value for customers and partners alike.

Download spreadsheet

Operational risks

PostNL Operational risks

TopicRisk levelTrendRisk summary
Employee attraction, development and retention
Employee turnover and labour shortages pose reputational and operational risks, including increased workloads in a tight labour market that lead to higher absenteeism, affecting productivity and service quality. However, these can also be viewed as opportunities to innovate, improve our offerings, and strengthen our reputation as an organisation that values its people. Prioritising employee safety and well-being not only supports our teams but also ensures the quality and reliability of our services.
Execution of cost-saving initiatives
Unsuccessful or delayed cost-saving initiatives, impairing cost savings and employee engagement
Availability of energy resources
High prices and scarcity of energy resources leading to unavailability may impact the quality and continuity of our business processes, our cost effectiveness and our reputation
Information technology and cybersecurity
Ineffective IT management systems leading to issues in e.g., availability, integrity, and confidentiality may impair the quality of our business processes, cost effectiveness and/or reputation
Total cost of labour
Unexpectedly high labour costs and related expenses could significantly impact our financial performance, particularly if we are unable to efficiently adjust pricing within our operating model. Furthermore, operational disruptions caused by trade union actions or media attention may exacerbate these financial challenges. In the current high-inflation environment, labour-related indexations and employee expectations regarding salary increases add further pressure on our cost structure and operational resilience.
Liability for loss or damage
Exposure to claims for loss or damage adversely impacting our financial performance. Using data and analysis to identify the most impactful improvement areas in our loss prevention and quality levels

Download spreadsheet

Risk description

Response

Employee attraction, development and retention
People are at the heart of the services we provide to our customers, consumers, and end-users. However, employee turnover rates remain relatively high compared to other sectors. Additionally, despite mutual agreements with our delivery partners, issues such as inadequate fair remuneration within the supply chain could negatively impact PostNL’s reputation as an attractive employer. These factors present challenges in attracting, developing, and retaining qualified personnel.In a highly competitive labour market, it is essential to differentiate ourselves as an employer of choice. We are committed to maintaining and enhancing the highest levels of physical, mental, and social well-being for our employees. This includes fostering a safe and healthy workplace, with a strong focus on preventing work-related injuries and illnesses. Occupational safety remains a critical priority, and we proactively address any risks associated with working conditions and adherence to safety standards to prevent unsafe environments. Furthermore, the ongoing labour market constraints have led to increased workloads and, in some areas of the organisation, decreased job satisfaction. This, in turn, raises the risk of higher absenteeism, which can directly impact productivity and service quality across both Mail in the Netherlands and Parcels. Over the long term, these challenges could also affect our corporate culture.
Mitigation
  • Prioritising the safety and well-being of people more effectively in challenging times, thereby demonstrating the care we have for our people, by continuing to invest in training and health and safety measures. Our certified ISO:45001 management system helps us with the structured management of the health and safety of people working with or for us. This includes identifying and following up on areas for improvement.
  • Innovation through online recruitment techniques and continuously improving the employee experience, for example by investing more in employer branding in addition to recruiting for individual jobs.
  • To increase PostNL’s attractiveness as an employer, we are investing in recruitment campaigns for potential employees, as well as retraining, retention, and development of our current staff.
  • Introduction of a division of responsibilities between logistics and people-focused roles, with people coaches now taking charge of all employee interactions related to absenteeism and engagement. A similar pilot will start within the depots of Parcels, with the goal of deploying people managers in the depots by early 2025. These efforts are expected to contribute to an overall reduction in absenteeism.
  • New collective labour agreements have been agreed for PostNL and Saturday deliverers and took effect from 1 April 2024 through to 30 June 2026, while a separate agreement for 15,000 mail deliverers runs from 1 January 2024 to 31 December 2025.
More information on these and similar initiatives can be found in the Social value chapter.
Opportunity description
PostNL has the opportunity to strengthen its position as an attractive and diverse global employer by enhancing its employee branding. By improving employee satisfaction and well-being, we can create a healthier and more productive workforce, fostering a stronger corporate image. Addressing absenteeism and ensuring optimal working conditions will not only reduce costs and improve staffing levels but also contribute to a safer workplace and sustainable long-term employment. As a company that values its people and adheres to regulations, PostNL aims to build a culture where employees feel valued and are integral to the success of the organisation.
Execution of cost-saving initiatives
Due to the decline in the postal market and intense competition within the parcels sector, achieving cost savings is a key element in ensuring sustainable business performance. This includes streamlining our workforce, optimising infrastructure efficiency, and reducing overhead costs. However, delays in or ineffective execution of cost-saving initiatives could result in operational inefficiencies, negatively impacting both service quality and employee motivation.Following years of cost reductions within the current regulatory framework, Mail in the Netherlands has reached the limits of what can be achieved without regulatory changes. A portion of these necessary savings depends on adjustments to the regulatory framework, as we are increasingly required to comply with the Postal Act, which has remained unchanged since 2009. Despite our continued efforts to meet these requirements, we have not achieved the 95% delivery performance standard since 2019 due to various factors. This ongoing challenge highlights a significant risk: delays in implementing necessary regulatory adjustments could impede our ability to realise the required cost savings.
Mitigation
  • Cost-savings projects are executed via enhanced programmes and are monitored weekly by the Mail in the Netherlands Management Board and Group Finance.
  • Mechanisms to adjust to changing circumstances have been implemented and are reviewed periodically. Execution via pilots and in close collaboration with the Works Council enables smooth implementation on a larger scale.
  • Digitise our core logistics process and systems as well as our commercial processes, where this helps to improve our business in the short term, and invest for the longer term.
Additional information on these initiatives can be found in the Customer value chapter.
Opportunity description
Leveraging extensive experience in cost-saving measures allows PostNL to set a benchmark for future initiatives across the organisation. Streamlining operations and improving efficiency ensures sustainable business performance while safeguarding service quality. Encouraging job mobility between Mail in the Netherlands and Parcels creates opportunities for employees to develop and adapt within the company, fostering motivation and resilience. With targeted cost-saving efforts and strategic workforce planning, the organisation can strengthen its adaptability and long-term success.
Availability of energy resources
The risk of disruption due to high prices and/or scarcity of energy resources may impact the quality of our business processes, cost effectiveness and/or reputation. Fuel and energy represent a substantial expense for our company and are important aspects of our logistical operating model. Network congestion in the Netherlands may lead to (further) delays in the transition towards an electric fleet, as the necessary charging infrastructure may not be installed in time across the entire country. The added complexity and uncertainty associated with the climate-related changes may affect our operational, sustainability and financial performance through higher than anticipated organic costs and/or scarcity of energy resources.
Mitigation
  • Purchase energy on the futures market so that the company's energy requirements are as secure as possible. At the same time, secure the necessary contract/delivery capabilities per location. We will also engage external energy advisers to regularly monitor the risk, and further manage energy data so that we are sure that we are purchasing the energy we require.
  • Self-generate as much energy as we can to reduce our dependency on external sources (for example by working towards self-sufficient buildings), look for alternative forms of (temporary) energy generation/self-sufficiency and, over the long term, make it available to our delivery partners.
  • Reduce energy consumption by making assets more sustainable and identify energy storage areas in the event of grid congestion.
Opportunity description
Our proactive approach to energy management offers an opportunity to strengthen resilience against market volatility while advancing our sustainability objectives. By leveraging strategic energy purchases on the futures market, we not only secure stable pricing but also reduce the impact of fluctuating energy costs on our operations.Our focus on energy self-sufficiency, such as renewable energy generation and sustainable asset investments, positions us to navigate the challenges of a volatile energy landscape with greater operational stability. These initiatives also align with broader societal goals, reinforcing our commitment to reducing our environmental footprint and supporting long-term sustainability.Furthermore, investing in alternative energy solutions and enhancing infrastructure for the transition to an electric fleet enables us to future-proof our operations. By addressing these challenges head-on, we ensure consistent service reliability, mitigate risks, and drive long-term value for our business, stakeholders, and the environment.
Information technology and cybersecurity
Threats to the availability, confidentiality or integrity of our IT networks, systems or (customer) data caused by IT disturbances, cyberattacks or lack of appropriate security and infrastructure measures may disrupt our business activities, affecting our ability to provide our services to the high-quality levels we demand. The ongoing digital transformation and integration of advanced technologies increase our exposure to these risks, particularly as AI-driven attacks grow in sophistication. Such threats may also result in the loss or theft of customer data, material cost increases, penalties, as well as damage to our reputation. Furthermore, reliance on legacy IT systems presents challenges in maintaining optimal efficiency and adapting to technological advancements. These systems may introduce inefficiencies, lead to higher maintenance costs, and hinder the adoption of innovative technologies. As a result, they could expose PostNL to heightened security vulnerabilities and compliance risks, impacting operational resilience and preparedness for future regulatory requirements. As a logistics company, we use logistics optimisation/prediction models, applying techniques including artificial intelligence, machine learning and robotics. These models contain personal and sensitive data, creating a heightened need for robust protection against data breaches and unauthorised access. Insufficient safeguards may result in privacy violations, legal sanctions, and financial losses, while damaging our reputation and trust relationships. It is critical to continuously evaluate and improve our data privacy protocols and security strategies to meet both legal requirements and the ethical expectations of our stakeholders.
Mitigation
  • Professional and dedicated IT and cybersecurity management at group level supported by de-centralised cybersecurity coordinators on all relevant IT systems used by PostNL, including continuous improvement based on issues identified and IT and cyber-related developments.
  • Evaluating and improving the resilience of critical applications based on frequent measurements and testing against stringent criteria, and implementation of action plans to keep our applications up to date.
  • Continuing to phase out legacy systems to improve the overall stability of IT applications and infrastructure.
Opportunity description
The rapid evolution of digital technologies and increasing cybersecurity demands present a significant opportunity for us to build a more resilient and innovative IT infrastructure. By transitioning away from legacy systems and adopting advanced technologies like AI and machine learning, we can unlock new efficiencies, improve predictive capabilities, and enhance decision-making processes across our operations.This transformation offers the chance to strengthen our cybersecurity posture, ensuring robust protection against emerging threats while fostering trust with customers and stakeholders. By embedding digital ethics into our approach, we can go beyond compliance to position ourselves as a leader in responsible innovation. Moreover, PostNL recognises the importance of talent optimisation, ensuring that its workforce is equipped to drive and sustain these innovations. By aligning technology, talent, and ethics, we are positioning ourselves to meet future challenges and remain at the forefront of innovation in the logistics sector.
Total cost of labour
Being a good employer is vital to us. One aspect of this is the terms and conditions under which we hire our personnel and employ outsourced labour. These terms and conditions, including salaries and other secondary benefits, represent a substantial company expense and are an important component of our operating model. Our financial performance could be affected by higher than anticipated total costs of labour and/or other related expenses, which we may not be able to efficiently or promptly adjust within our pricing model. Opportunity costs due to operational disruptions as a result of action by trade unions and/or action triggered by media attention may impact our financial performance. The current economic climate is characterised by high collective labour-related indexations due to relatively high inflation in preceding years.Wage in 2025 will rise in line with recently negotiated collective labour agreements. The CLA for mail deliverers runs until 31 December 2025 and the CLA for PostNL till 30June 2026. Employee expectations concerning salary increments may surpass what we can feasibly offer while pursuing our strategic objectives, given the highly competitive market landscape.
Mitigation
  • Establishing collective labour agreements with robust wage agreements in the future.
  • Maintaining good relations with the trade unions and social partners based on mutual recognition of shared interests.
  • Balance the right pay to be a good employer with generating sufficient cash flow to continue investing in our future.
Opportunity description
Fostering strong and constructive relationships with trade unions provides the foundation for reaching agreements that align employee satisfaction with the organisation's long-term goals. By negotiating and finalising collective labour agreements in a timely and effective manner, PostNL can ensure a stable and predictable working environment that supports both its workforce and operational continuity. Such agreements not only demonstrate the company’s commitment to being a responsible and attractive employer but also help balance employee expectations regarding salaries and benefits with the financial realities required to achieve strategic objectives. This proactive approach strengthens trust among employees, enhances job satisfaction, and safeguards the company’s ability to navigate a competitive and economically challenging market.
Liability for loss or damage
We remain exposed to claims for loss or damage. Some of these exposures are covered under conventions such as the United Postal Union, the Warsaw Convention or the Convention on the Contract for the International Carriage of Goods by Road, as well as PostNL’s general terms and conditions. PostNL also has limited liability under the Postal Act. Despite these protections, claims not covered by conventions or our general terms and conditions may impact our financial performance. This challenge has intensified with the rising volume of e-commerce parcel deliveries and new portfolio initiatives, where the average parcel value is higher.
Mitigation
  • Continue to maintain robust insurance policies in relation to our business and assets with reputable underwriters and/or insurance companies against claims for loss or damage to the extent not covered by conventions, and to the extent that is usual for companies like ours.
  • A dedicated loss prevention steering committee with a strong focus on:
    • Strengthening contractual agreements with customers, explicitly defining liability limits and conditions.
    • Utilising data-driven insights through a ‘digital twin’ model to closely monitor and analyse the physical flow of parcels.
    • Ensuring adherence to standard operating procedures to minimise physical security risks.
Opportunity description
The continued growth of e-commerce and the increasing complexity of our portfolio presents an opportunity to redefine security and reliability in logistics. By exploring innovative solutions, such as secure recipient verification and enhanced parcel tracking, we can address the evolving needs of our customers while reducing risks associated with loss or damage. Advancements in data analytics offer further potential to refine our operational processes. By leveraging insights to identify vulnerabilities and optimise loss prevention strategies, we not only minimise claims but also enhance efficiency across the value chain.This opportunity extends to strengthening customer relationships by addressing the specific challenges of high-value shipments. By proactively adapting to these demands, we have the potential to build greater trust and confidence in our services, setting a new benchmark for security and reliability in the logistics sector. These innovations will enable us to better serve a dynamic e-commerce market while ensuring long-term resilience and competitiveness.

Download spreadsheet

Compliance risks

PostNL Compliance risks

TopicRisk levelTrendRisk summary
Supply chain accountability
Working with third-party suppliers increases our accountability and associated risks. We may face liability for suppliers’ regulatory non-compliance, leading to legal issues, fines, and reputational harm. The need for oversight of both suppliers and their subcontractors complicates compliance efforts throughout the supply chain.
Legal and regulatory developments
Non-compliance with current or inadequate adaptation with future laws and regulation adversely impacting business operations, our reputation and on our financial performance

Download spreadsheet

Risk description

Response

Supply chain accountability
Working with third-party suppliers to deliver products and services to our customers entails supply chain accountability with corresponding risks. This accountability is increasing, requiring a more comprehensive approach that extends our responsibilities beyond traditional supply chain management. Our company could potentially face accountability for regulatory non-compliance by our suppliers, including in some cases their failure to comply with labour laws, environmental standards, transport safety regulations, or ethical guidelines. This could result in legal disputes, fines, and damage to our reputation, potentially undermining the stability and trust in our company. The growing need for active involvement throughout the entire supply chain intensifies these risks, as we are required to oversee not only our direct suppliers but also the practices of their subcontractors. This increases complexity and challenges in ensuring compliance across all layers of the supply chain.Outsourcing these services not only introduces significant compliance risks but also operational risks. Disruptions or inefficiencies in the supply chain, resulting from the suboptimal performance of these external entities, can potentially negatively impact our delivery quality and customer satisfaction. This risk is particularly evident in three sectors: delivery and transport partners, IT services, and staffing agencies. Finally, reliance on outsourced IT and cloud-based technologies impacts risks related to cybersecurity and data security, system reliability, and potential breaches.
Mitigation
  • We are modifying contracts with staffing agencies to include a ‘right to audit’ clause, for regular monitoring and assurance of compliance with labour conditions and compliance requirements.
  • New due diligence process for delivery partners to thoroughly assess their operational and compliance capabilities.
  • Management of cloud suppliers through robust assessments based on a strict control framework.
  • Closely monitoring emerging societal expectations and increasing compliance demands to proactively anticipate and respond to them.
Opportunity description
The growing complexities of supply chain accountability present a significant opportunity to build more resilient and sustainable operations. By strengthening partnerships with high-quality suppliers, we can explore new ways to enhance efficiency, elevate service quality, and maintain compliance with evolving labor, environmental, and ethical standards. These collaborations also offer the potential to drive innovation across our value chain, enabling more agile and customer-focused solutions. Additionally, the increasing reliance on outsourced IT and cloud-based technologies further highlights an opportunity to strengthen our cybersecurity and data security measures. This opportunity is particularly relevant for our IT and technology partners, such as cloud providers and software suppliers, who play a key role in ensuring system reliability and data protection. Investing in advanced IT protections and building robust control frameworks will help ensure system reliability, safeguard sensitive data, and enhance trust among customers and stakeholders. For our logistics and delivery partners, the focus remains on leveraging digital tools to improve real-time tracking, operational visibility, and data-driven decision-making. These opportunities not only allow us to address the challenges of a more complex supply chain but also enable us to create a more secure, innovative, and trusted logistics network. By embracing these advancements, we can reinforce our competitive edge in a rapidly evolving market.
Legal and regulatory developments
Regulatory requirements and oversight are increasing and becoming more complex in the markets we operate in. These regulations cover a broad range of topics including postal law, transport and safety law, competition law, regulation related to dangerous and prohibited goods, customs regulations, labour practices, data protection and privacy, and environmental standards.In relation to our responsibilities as the universal service provider (USP) under the universal service obligation (USO), changes to the postal law (which are in development) may lead to additional operational costs. It may also impose additional legal and administrative costs.Compliance with laws and regulations is vital to demonstrate our commitment to sound business conduct and maintaining our license to operate. Misinterpretation of new or changed regulations or ineffective internal controls could lead to non-compliance. This may lead to sanctions, including fines and business restrictions, which could materially negatively impact our financial performance, continuation of services to customers, and our reputation.
Mitigation
  • Continuous implementation and improvement of appropriate policies, processes and internal control procedures to limit exposure to complex legal and regulatory requirements, such as human rights, health and safety, transport and due diligence for delivery partners.
  • Operating a robust integrity programme that incorporates business principles and emphasising awareness and adherence across the organisation. For example, a mandatory integrity e-learning module has been released to reinforce these standards.
  • Have dialogue with governmental and non-governmental stakeholders on a continuous basis about the interpretation of, and compliance with, regulations. For example, in relation to the USO regulations on national and EU levels.
  • Ensure we adapt our operations in time to legal and regulatory requirement changes.
  • PostNL has several measures in place to ensure a safe and healthy working environment and in 2024, we intensified our focus on reducing physical labour risks across all parcel depots.We implemented new measures such as new electric towing devices for roll containers, new working instructions with the introduction of task-rotation and new delivery instructions for customers to reduce physical load. We will implement additional measures in 2025 and will continue to further investigate possibilities to automise and robotise the sorting process.
Opportunity description
Navigating the growing complexity of regulatory requirements provides an opportunity to lead in responsible business practices. By proactively aligning with new regulations such as the CSRD and NIS2, we can anticipate potential impacts, minimise risks, and drive operational resilience.This proactive approach positions us to set benchmarks in compliance and ethical business conduct, enhancing our license to operate and reinforcing trust with stakeholders. Through continuous dialogue with regulatory bodies and industry peers, we aim to contribute to shaping fair and sustainable practices in the logistics sector.

Download spreadsheet

Reporting risk

PostNL Reporting risks

TopicRisk levelTrendRisk summary
Sustainability reporting
The CSRD requires greater transparency in ESG reporting. We may not fully comply, risking regulatory issues, reputational harm, or fines. Inconsistent data and changing rules could make it hard to communicate with stakeholders, and the tight deadline might require changes in future reports.

Download spreadsheet

Risk description

Response

Sustainability reporting
The implementation of the CSRD introduces new expectations and requirements for transparency on ESG factors. Just as financial reporting has matured over time, we now face the challenge of elevating sustainability reporting to the same level of rigour. Achieving this requires both reliable data collection and robust reporting processes across all business units. Given the complexity and recent introduction of the CSRD requirements, we are currently focused on interpreting and applying the guidelines effectively.There is a risk that PostNL may not fully comply with CSRD requirements, which could lead to regulatory scrutiny, reputational damage or financial penalties. The variability in data collection, along with ongoing developments and evolving interpretations of the directive, may challenge our ability to provide transparent and timely information to stakeholders. Furthermore, the compressed timeline for achieving full CSRD compliance, combined with the novelty of the directive, may lead to potential adjustments and revised interpretations in future reporting cycles as we refine our practices.
Mitigation
  • PostNL is investing in dedicated resources to support the transition and implementation, including specialised teams focused on CSRD compliance.
  • Benchmarking will be a crucial part of our learning process, helping us gauge how our reporting compares to peers. We recognise that this first year of CSRD implementation is a learning phase, and more refined benchmarking insights are expected next year.
  • Including a disclaimer in our sustainability reports to manage expectations, noting that adjustments may be required as we refine our compliance approach. We are committed to transparency about our progress, challenges, and any future updates.
  • Utilising digital platforms and dashboards to provide more frequent and transparent updates to stakeholders, supporting continuous engagement beyond the annual reporting cycle.
Opportunity description
The introduction of the CSRD offers PostNL the opportunity to elevate its sustainability reporting to the same level of transparency and rigour as its financial reporting. By developing reliable data collection systems and robust reporting processes across all business units, the company can strengthen its position as a transparent and responsible organisation. Successfully implementing the CSRD requirements enables PostNL to demonstrate its commitment to ESG standards, fostering trust among stakeholders and enhancing its reputation. The focus on aligning with these new guidelines not only ensures regulatory compliance but also positions PostNL as a leader in sustainability reporting, capable of adapting to evolving standards and contributing to a more sustainable future.

Download spreadsheet

Next Previous