Financial outlook 2025

We acknowledge that the external operating environment remains challenging and that the pace of client concentration is difficult to predict due to changing consumer behaviour.

We assume volume growth at Parcels of between 1% and 3%, below the assumed growth (4%-5%) of the Dutch e-commerce market. The announced yield measures are expected to result in a slight loss in market share, mainly international. The positive price/mix is expected to be between €55m and €60m, almost fully explained by pricing. Ongoing adaptive measures are expected to result in efficiency improvements of between €40 million and €50 million.

At Mail in the Netherlands, we assume a volume decline of between 8% and 10% and expect to achieve between €40 million and €45 million in cost savings.

In 2025, organic cost increases are expected to amount to around €125 million, mainly related to rising labour costs, and to be fully absorbed by price adjustments. Capex is expected to be above last year's number, primarily due to additional strategic investments (~€15 million). The investment programme is flexible to ensure that resources are used efficiently.

PostNL emphasises its intention to pay a dividend over 2025 and holds on to its aim to be properly financed, taking into consideration the anticipated improvement in performance going forward and the progress towards a future-proof postal service.

For 2025, PostNL assumes:

PostNL Financial outlook in € million
2024 - 2025

Download spreadsheet

In the following sections, we present our non-financial outlook for 2025 by value domain.