Financial outlook 2024

PostNL acknowledges that the external operating environment in 2024 remains challenging. Overall, organic cost increases will be significant and are expected to be around €155 million, mainly related to rising labour costs. Targeted yield management both at Parcels and Mail in the Netherlands will absorb around €135 million. PostNL assumes €25 million in annualised run-rate cost savings (2023: €5 million) from the reduction of 200-300 FTEs in overhead, mainly at Parcels, and other measures to reduce indirect costs and improve efficiency, as announced last year.

PostNL assumes domestic parcel volume to grow by 2%-4%, in line with market growth. Volumes from international customers are expected to show double-digit growth, driven by Asian web shops. Together, this will result in volume growth at Parcels of between 7% and 10%. Overall, prices will be up, but the development in product and customer mix will continue to put pressure on margins. The focus on strict cost control and network rationalisation will already contribute around €35 million to normalised EBIT.

At Mail in the Netherlands, PostNL assumes a volume decline of between 7% and 9%. PostNL expects to achieve around €40 million in cost savings, based on further adjustments of processes in the current business model.

Capex is expected to be around €110 million, continuing a clear focus on the strategy whilst staying disciplined on cash flow management.

The company aims to pay a dividend that develops substantially in line with operational performance.

For 2024, PostNL assumes:

PostNL Financial performance in € million
2023 - 2024

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In the next sections we disclose our non-financial outlook for 2024 per value domain.